News February 2004

[New Projects]

  • Research on Japan's Population Decline and Total National Capability

    In December 2003, NIRA commenced a project entitled "Research on Japan's Population Decline and Total National Capability."

    The size of the population is generally considered a fundamental element of the framework of a nation. Against the background of a continuing decline in population, this research project intends to consider Japan's "total national capability" from a broad perspective, rather than confining itself to specific policy fields such as pensions and the provision of medical care.

    Population Decline in Japan

    It is almost certain that the population of Japan will soon reach a peak and will then enter a period of decline for at least the next several decades. Needless to say, the reason for the population decline is a falling birthrate. The total fertility rate in Japan declined from 1.75 in 1980 to 1.33 in 2001.

    The working-age population has already begun to decline, and the ratio of the elderly in the population is increasing year by year. The foundation of human resources on which economic productivity rests is being eroded by the low birthrate and the graying of the population, and this is one cause of Japan's pessimistic economic outlook in recent years.

    As the absolute size of Japan's human resource base diminishes, the global population balance is also changing. China is maintaining high economic growth, and Japan's position as an economic superpower cannot avoid being affected.

    What is "Total National Capability"?

    Against this background, undefined anxieties concerning Japan's future prompt the view that the decline in population will reduce national capability.

    In the past, the imperative to have children and increase the population was unquestioned. It might even be termed national policy. Behind this lay the perception that the population was the ground supporting military might and the economic power to fight a war. It seemed obvious that the size of the population, as a source of military and labor power, was an important element of national capability.

    On the other hand, there are numerous examples of nations with smaller populations whose people live deeply satisfying lives.

    If we define "total national capability" as the aspects of the nation that Japan should attempt to enhance in future, then it should be understood in a broader sense than what has traditionally been defined as national capability.

    Specifically, in steering Japan towards the future, it will be inadequate to see the "decline in population" as synonymous with a "decline in national capability" and to hastily conclude that problems will be solved if only a high per capita standard of living can be achieved.

    In-depth discussion of total national capability may be said to be absolutely demanded by the situation facing the nation.

    [Policy Proposals]

    Proposals Concerning Nation Building, Reconstruction and Development in Afghanistan

    NIRA's Study Group on Afghanistan has published a report presenting the results of its research on nation building, reconstruction and development in Afghanistan. The following represents an outline of the proposals presented in this report.

    Nation Building Predicated on Coexistence between Ethnic Groups

    The guarantee of public order and the active participation of the entire Afghan population are essential to the nation building process and the achievement of reconstruction and recovery. To ensure public order, the U.S. and the nations surrounding Afghanistan must cease supporting warlords and prevent members of the Taliban residing in other nations from entering Afghanistan. At the same time, the Ministry of Defense, which is composed mainly by members of the Northern Alliance, should be reformed to ensure fair and neutral administration of the disarmament process and to enable the establishment of a new Afghan military and police force encompassing all religions and ethnicities. Only on this basis will the preconditions for a nation building process participated in by all citizens be realized.

    In addition, in order to establish an administration regarded as legitimate by all Afghan citizens, it will be important that citizens reach consensus on the introduction of a new constitution and new political and economic systems. Such a consensus should be reached on the basis of a multi-layered and mutually complementary employment of existing Afghan mechanisms. It is also important that the international community support Afghanistan by playing the role of a fair and neutral supervisor during the transition period, during which the process of nation building is rendered unstable.

    Reconstruction and Development Contributing to the Promotion of Independence among Citizens

    It is time to shift the major goal of reconstruction and development from humanitarian support to the promotion of independence among citizens. Selective and strategic support must be provided to create employment and guarantee income by rehabilitating agriculture, in which approximately 90% of the population is involved, and constructing infrastructure such as irrigation facilities, bridges and loop road systems. Given that the area governed by the Afghan Transitional Administration is limited to Kabul, to advance regional reconstruction it will be essential to implement all on the basis of consensus reached through the employment of traditional consultative frameworks (jirga and shura) which have proven effective in Afghan society with the cooperation of trustworthy local NGOs. In addition, offering support to the government by means of a trust fund for Afghan reconstruction will be important in the medium-to long-term.

    Japan's Role Founded on a Human Security Approach

    Japan's standing is high in Afghanistan because the nation has not been involved in power politics. This represents a "hidden asset" of Japanese diplomacy. Given this, Japan should formulate an original policy for the provision of support to Afghanistan based on the principle of human security and with an emphasis on the perspectives of Afghan citizens. This in turn will prevent Japan from being perceived as merely a follower of the U.S. Specific proposals include the establishment of centers to provide venues for dialogue and collaboration among Afghanistan's different ethnic groups and social classes, and the promotion of field research on the nation's social structure and cultures with the assistance of Afghan researchers. It is important for Japan to offer long-term support to nation building, reconstruction and development.

    The DDR (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration) program which is advancing under the leadership of Japan and the United Nations should be integrated with other forms of support, such as the rehabilitation of agriculture and the construction of roads, to form a comprehensive strategy. It is important that such a strategy be pursued on the basis of international cooperation. For example, regular conferences aimed at stopping the support provided to warlords and putting an end to their intervention in the political situation of the country should be held among the nations involved.

    [Introduction of a New Visiting Research Fellow]

    South Korean NGOs have achieved rapid development and are impacting the daily lives of citizens in myriad aspects, such as politics, economic activities and social issues. In addition, NGOs are conducting a wide range of international development projects with the aim of eliminating poverty and contributing to the stability of the national economies by providing information and knowledge sharing, technology transfer and promoting education.

    Japanese NGOs are also vigorously developing activities, Ms. Lee points out, however, that in comparison to South Korean NGOs, their activities are more "humanitarianism-oriented." At the same time, Japanese NGOs tend to emphasize specifically and systematically supporting the advance of developing nations.

    In her research at NIRA, Ms. Lee will analyze the present status of NGOs and reexamine their relationship to government based on an international comparison with Japan and South Korea as case studies. In addition, the research will explore measures to enhance the effectiveness of NGOs and to strengthen the cooperative relationships between Japanese and South Korean NGOs.

    Ms. Lee is also planning to participate in the NIRA research project on international exchange groups.

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