NIRA News, No.6 June 2005

[Completed Research Projects]

* Global Governance - In Quest of a New International Order

With a focus on analyzing the status in Afghanistan and Iraq, this research project considered the ideal forms of global governance, for example steady promotion of comprehensive strategies against "new threats", strategies that emphasize human security and strengthening of cooperation in the international community, including the United Nations. As current global governance cannot be discussed without reference to the United States, which has overwhelming military power, this project explored ways, based on an analysis of the domestic situation, which becomes the foundation for U.S. foreign policy, to urge the U. S. to emphasize international cooperation and also examined what proactive role Japan can play in this process. This project suggested that the United Nations should also conduct sweeping reforms that respond to the demands of the times, such as establishing a comprehensive security system to deal with "new threats" and the adoption of governance that is built from the bottom up, based on local and civil societies.

* Long-term Forecasts for Northeast Asia: Selective Scenarios

This research project focused on the Northeast Asian economic area and explored its implications in international cooperation.

This project targeted Japan, China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan), South Korea, North Korea, Mongolia, and Russia, and covered the three northeastern provinces in China and Russian Far East as submodels. Regarding each nation's inter-industry relations model, the project emphasized bonds with trade blocs, and the interdependency with population and economic blocs. From several alternative scenarios, the significance of international cooperation within the region, in particular in the aspects of trade, capital, and technology (esp. concerning the environment and energy conservation) was clarified in specific quantitative terms. In addition, the I-O model demonstrated the trend of changes in production structure. In the policy aspect, it was clarified that economic cooperation between Japan and China would be indispensable for stable development of not only Northeast Asia, but also the global economy in the future.

* The Optimal Direction of a Japan-India Strategic Relationship - From the Perspective of Regional Cooperation in Asia -

Driven by the IT industry, India's economy has grown steadily since the 1990s. On the other hand, the nation faces complex problems such as basic infrastructure, social problems (e.g., poverty and social welfare), and democratic politics centering on the respective interests of the caste groups, problems which may come to check the sustainable development of the nation.

NIRA's research project conducted in 2003, brought to light the lack of (1) academic research on the sustainable development of the Indian economy and (2) policy proposals on Japan-India relations. In order to respond to these deficiencies, this project aimed at research based on the current status of the Indian economy. Specialists were invited for interviews and field research was conducted to examine the issues raised in the study group discussion. Based on an in-depth analysis of the nation's economic, social and cultural contexts, this research project attempted to identify the factors that may hinder the sustainable development of the Indian economy. At the same time, policy proposals to eliminate these factors and the optimal course of Japan-India economic relations were presented.

[New Research Projects]

* Research on a Grand Design for Northeast Asia: Phase III

Recently, Northeast Asia has shown rapid development of interdependence with Japan in terms of trade and investment. However, because of the differences in political and economic systems, level of economic development, and historical issues, regional economic integration lags behind not only the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but also in East Asia as a whole. In Japan, with the exception of a few researchers and concerned people, sufficient interest and resources are not applied to the issue of strengthening the region's development and economic cooperation, despite of its significance.

In this sense, it can be said that it is time to urge the region's governments and their citizens to consider the construction of multilateral infrastructure to maximize common profits and the establishment of the related systems, based on the concept of a Grand Design (GD) for Northeast Asia about which NIRA has been conducting research.

NIRA positions the research on a GD for Northeast Asia as a prioritized research project for its 5-year Midterm Research Plan commencing in 2005. This research project will be conducted as a medium-term research project based on the results of NIRA's prior research on a GD for Northeast Asia: Phase I and II, in cooperation with leading Chinese and South Korean research institutes and with the guidance and help of the domestic study group. This year, the project will consider the status, tasks, and problems of national land development throughout the region, and the steps necessary to reflect the GD concept, which integrates those tasks and problems, in each nation's national land development plan and their future directions. It will also present a roadmap towards the regional integration of Northeast Asia. In addition, the project will consider the roadmap by grouping issues into the following five areas: 1) energy and the environment, 2) transportation, physical distribution, and telecommunications, 3) strategic development cluster, 4) ecotourism, and 5) development finance. Then, it will specify the area(s) that should be prioritized for the near term, and prepare concrete pilot project proposals if possible.

* Research on India and China in 2030

India and China continue their remarkable economic growth, and their presence in the world has been rapidly increasing. The problem is for how long will their current high growth continue, and what effect it will have on East Asia and the world? In Japan, much research on China has been conducted to date, and there are several areas of specialized research on India. However, analysis focusing on the interdependence of India and China and critical comparisons of the two nations were insufficient. It is crucial for Japan to establish strategic political and economic cooperation that considers the balance with the two nations. In order to contribute to the debate of specific policies towards strategic cooperation, NIRA will conduct the following research.

First, regarding both India and China, this project will consider growth factors (e.g., population and foreign direct investment) and growth constraints (e.g., the environment and energy issues, insufficient social and institutional infrastructure, and gaps between regions and social classes). At the same time the project will compare the two nations based on their level(s) of interdependence to elucidate similarities and differences. Then, it will compare the two nations' high growth with the development process of Japan and other nations, identify similarities and differences, and search for the determining factors. In addition, the project will critically examine the forecast that both nations will continue at a high rate of economic growth, a forecast made by both nations' governments, international organizations and the private sector, and point out problems.

Second, to present a scenario of the two nations' growth approaching the year 2030, the project will identify the trends of comparative advantage in the Indian and Chinese economies and consider possible policy responses to growth constraints from the perspective of, inter alia, regional cooperation. Based on the above, the project will plot several growth scenarios and explore their effects on East Asia and the world. In addition, within these scenarios, this research project will propose a basic direction for strategic political and economic cooperation between Japan and India and between Japan and China.

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