NIRA News, No.7 July 2005

[Research Trends]

[Completed Research Projects]

* Research on the NIRA Policy Evaluation Model

In recent years, policy evaluation has drawn increasing attention as an important tool to improve governance of the public sector. To formulate policies more efficiently through this method, central government ministries and local governments have been pursuing a process of trial and error. Now that three years have passed since the enactment of the Government Policy Evaluation Act, the government has commenced discussions to review it in keeping with its supplementary provision that stipulates that the Act must be reviewed three years after its promulgation. Against this background, this research project examined the current policy evaluation act to identify needed improvements. It also developed a "NIRA Policy Evaluation Model" as a practical tool for third parties to evaluate national policies.

The purposes of policy evaluation include: (1) securing accountability to the parliament and citizens; (2) promoting efficient administration; and (3) shift from an administration emphasizing procedures to one emphasizing results. The central government ministries conduct project evaluation, performance evaluation, and comprehensive evaluation, and comprehensively evaluate and report their administrative activities. On the other hand, the original goal of clearly positioning policy evaluation in a management cycle has not yet been achieved. In addition, in the field of evaluation, excessive expectations for policy evaluation have created distrust, and the evaluation system has become a ritual. To solve these problems, it is necessary to attempt to implement "effective policy evaluation" by conducting the following: (1) implementation of evaluation aiming at policy formation; (2) focusing and confining evaluation targets; (3) streamlining the evaluation format and securing substance; (4) doubling information loop; (5) appropriate division and complementation of roles between politics and administration; and (6) intervention of outside actors.

Policy evaluation in Japan mainly consists of self-evaluation within a given department as provided by the Act. This kind of self-evaluation can bring about significant achievements because of its easy access to government data and its high intimacy with the improvement process. On the other hand, however, from the perspective of the government's check or from the pluralistic standpoint, "third party evaluation," or evaluation by outside actors, plays a major role. Based on this understanding, this project proposed the "NIRA policy evaluation model."

This model is designed to evaluate national policies and propose improvements and/or alternative plans. Because this model deals with national policies, difficulties occurs in terms of evaluation, such as "policies are too abstract," "many decision-makers are involved in policies," "there are multiple theoretical frameworks on which the policies rely." To deal with these problems, this model has the following features. First, the model simplifies the process of discovering policy problems by using checklists. Second, if the procedure is followed, improvement and alternative plans for policies can be proposed. Third, it aims at pluralistic evaluation.

As an example, this project conducted policy evaluation focusing on policies for establishing a self-perpetuating society.

* Northeast Asia's Economic Indexes - Fixed-Point Observation

With the rapid growth of the Chinese economy, Northeast Asia has emerged as a new axis of growth in the global economy, and interdependence within the region has been deepening. A move to achieve economic partnership primarily among Japan, China, and South Korea has also accelerated. However, Northeast Asia is significantly behind other regions in the world in terms of mutlilateral regional cooperation. In addition, it is hard to say that adequate study on regional cooperation has been done to date.

This project conducted basic research as a preparatory stage for establishing a database including a fixed-point observation system for Northeast Asian nations and regions. Specifically, the project conducted a field survey at think tanks, government-affiliated organizations and universities in Northeast Asian nations (China, Mongolia, South Korea, etc.), UN organizations including the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the Tumen River Area Development Programme Secretariat of the UN Development Programme (UNDP), and the Tumen River development area, and collected materials from the nations in the region. Then based on them, the project organized data on Northeast Asia's time-series economic indexes, social development indexes, development plans.

In the future, based on the data, the project will prepare combined indexes (degree of intra-regional trade linkage, degree of dependence on foreign trade, and intra-regional investment ratio). In addition, from the perspective of regional governance, the project will prepare comprehensive indexes regarding the traffic and transport system, energy supply-demand structure, and food supply-demand structure for the entire region.

At the same time, to strenghten research on regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, we will cooperate with foreign research institutes aiming to establish a network of related think tanks within the region and collect opinions from professors and researchers abroad on a timely basis.

Finally, from these data, we will establish a NIRA-type database covering Northeast Asia as a whole.

* The Optimal Economic Cooperation of East Asia in Pursuit of Joint Prosperity and the Possibilities for Establishing an Economic Union

This research project held the 8th Scholarship Conference on the East Asian Economy in Jeju Island, South Korea in November 2004 with the participation of research institutes from East Asia, including China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea, under the theme of "Towards the establishment of an East Asian economic community."

At the conference, first on the subject of "The Latest Development of the East Asian Economy and Future Prospects," research results were presented from the Japanese, Chinese, and South Korean perspectives. They concern the form of cooperation of various regional cooperation organizations that have been established within East Asia, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (APEC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and their limits as well as the possibility that those organizations are a base that will develop into an East Asian economic community in the future.

Then, on the subject of "Strategies to Promote East Asian Regional Integration," the results and tasks of the framework of ASEAN+3 (Japan, China, and South Korea) as a starting point leading to an East Asian economic community were discussed. In addition, as specific promotion strategies, the creation of East Asian common financial and capital markets was proposed, and the significance was pointed out of establishing a community, the two sides of which are trade, that is, the flow of goods, and finance.

In addition, on the subject of "The East Asian Economy Seen from the Global Perspective," research results concerning the regional economic cooperation seen from the perspective of world's regional economic integration and the possibility of a community that pays attention to energy and the environment were presented and discussed.

All the research results interpret the deepening of regional economic cooperation in East Asia as a positive step and argue that such cooperation will continue to progress. We should pay attention to how the region will overcome the problems raised and how to promote regional cooperation.

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